Asian economic growth analysis

 

Economic growth, 2015-2024 (GDP per person change, highest to lowest):

Bangladesh: +76%. GDP per person rose from $1,360 to $2,397. Manufacturing share of GDP rose from about 17% to 21%. Its working-age share grew (+2.8 pts), the most in the group, but it ran a trade deficit (-$4.4B).

Vietnam: +72%. Manufacturing output grew 3.4 times, from $32.7B to $111B, and its factory share of GDP jumped from about 14% to 25%. It ran a surplus ($20.5B), though its working-age share fell (-1.8 pts).

India: +62%. It has the widest deficit in the group (-$49.0B). Its factory share is low, about 13% and slightly lower than in 2015. Its working-age share grew (+2.0 pts).

China: +58%. It has the biggest surplus ($248B) and made 64% of the group's manufacturing output ($4.69T). Its factory share is high (about 26%) but slightly lower than in 2015. Its working-age share fell (-2.7 pts).

Singapore: +45%. It is the richest economy in the group, with a surplus of $79.0B. Its working-age share fell the most (-3.1 pts, from 73.8% to 70.7%).

Indonesia: +45%. Its factory share fell from about 21% to 18%, and it ran a small deficit (-$4.0B). Its working-age share grew modestly (+1.1 pts).

Philippines: +36%. Its factory share fell from about 20% to 17.5%, and it ran a deficit (-$8.9B). Its working-age share grew (+2.2 pts).

Malaysia: +28%. Its factory share edged up to about 23.5%, and it ran a surplus ($10.7B). Its working-age share grew the least among the gainers (+0.7 pts).

Thailand: +22%. It has the highest factory share (about 26.5%), though slightly lower than in 2015, and a surplus of $14.5B. Its working-age share fell (-2.9 pts), the second-largest drop.

South Korea: +20%. It is a rich, factory-heavy economy (about 26% of GDP) with a $42.0B surplus. Its working-age share fell (-2.5 pts).

Pakistan: +14%. It has the lowest income and lowest factory share (about 12%), and ran a deficit (-$11.7B). Its working-age share grew (+2.7 pts).

Japan: -3%. It is the only economy whose income fell. It has a large surplus ($148B), but its working-age share fell (-2.2 pts).

Overall pattern: The poorer, younger economies (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan) grew fast in percentage terms while gaining working-age population. The richer, older economies (Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China) grew slower, with big surpluses and shrinking working-age shares. Vietnam is the standout, combining fast growth, a factory surge and a surplus.

Singapore and Indonesia are tied at +45%. The factory-share figures are my estimates from the bubble chart, so treat them as approximate.